NFL officials would have walked over broken glass to have this matchup last year. But waiting a season actually benefits the intrigue, as now Tom Brady, safely ensconced with the defending Super Bowl champions in Tampa Bay, faces Mac Jones, his heir apparent in New England.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-6.5)
Some of the bloom is off the rose after Tampa Bay was beaten soundly by the Rams last Sunday. Instead of giving the Patriots the opportunity to hand Tom Brady his first loss, it will be a chance to give them a second straight.
But only some of the bloom is off. Brady, at 44-years-old, leads the NFL with 10 touchdown passes. His 1,087 yards are second in the league. His 141 attempts are first. His 60 passing attempts on first down are also tops in the league.
There is absolutely nothing slowing down about his game. And if ever there was motivation to show that, it comes with being back in New England and wanting to beat Bill Belichick.
Brady says there is no ill-will between him, his former coach, or his former team. But Brady is Brady because of his competitiveness, which no doubt fuels fire to prove that he was far from done when the Patriots said goodbye following the 2019 season.
New England Patriots
New Pats quarterback Mac Jones was still in college when Brady and the Patriots parted ways. He had nothing to do with it then, and he wants nothing to do with the quest to beat Brady now.
He wants to beat the Buccaneers and continue to develop as an NFL quarterback. And those steps forward take place when facing a defense as good and as challenging as Tampa Bay’s.
Of course, those Bucs just gave up 34 points to the Rams, and no doubt Bill Belichick is studying every second of the tape. He also knows Brady better than any coach in the NFL, and he’s probably been working on a plan to stop Brady since the first day he was gone. Executing that plan successfully, however, will be another thing entirely.
Betting Pick
Buccaneers (-6.5)
Because it’s at home and Belichick always seems to have a good scheme in place when facing the best quarterbacks, this point spread is less than a touchdown. It really should be over a touchdown.
The Bucs just lost to one of the teams looking almost like a Super Bowl participant. The Patriots beat a hapless Jets team but have otherwise looked uninspiring in their other games.
The Bucs win this game by 7-10 points and cover the spread.
Under 49
This will be a lower-scoring affair. The Patriots’ defense will keep Brady from going off for five touchdowns, and on offense New England will try to be as deliberate and methodical as possible.
Part of that will be the specific game plan, and part of it is just how Jones and the offense are best built for success.
This feels like a 27-17 Tampa Bay win, which keeps the total score under 49.