Here’s my Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs preview and prediction. Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs storylines have changed since we first got excited about these two teams on the schedule. Buffalo’s defense has looked like the ’85 Bears, while Kansas City’s defense has them looking more vulnerable than they have in three seasons.
The teams look slightly different from when we saw them play in the AFC Championship Game, but the ultimate stakes between two Super Bowl contenders remain the same.
Buffalo Bills
We saw what happened to the Bills when they faced a top defense. In Week 1, they lost to a great Steelers defense and a bad Steelers offense. Sunday night, they face the polar opposite.
Patrick Mahomes leads the NFL with 14 touchdown passes, putting him on pace for 60 by the season’s end. He is great, the Kansas City offense is great, but the Chiefs’ defense is decidedly not so great.
That will open things up for the Bills offense, which has been stuck in neutral for much of the season because their defense has been so good. The Bills rank 15th in passing yards this season and fifth in rushing, mostly because the Buffalo defense has recorded two shutouts in four games.
There will be no shutout at Arrowhead Stadium, which means that Josh Allen and company will be relied upon to move the ball and put up points.
Kansas City Chiefs (-3)
If the Chiefs have designs on another top playoff seed, this is a must-win game. They’re already down a tiebreaker to the Ravens, and a loss on Sunday would see the Bills also get the head-to-head tiebreaker, should things end up even in January.
The good news for Kansas City is that their offense is nearly unstoppable. In six of seven possessions against the Eagles, they scored touchdowns. And if not for four turnovers against the Chargers, that would have put up 35 points against L.A.
The bad news is that their defense is giving up points as fast as the offense can score them. They did force more red-zone field goals a week ago, but Philadelphia still averaged more than 6.6 yards per play and more than 8.0 yards per pass attempt.
There is still time to get that fixed, but the clock is ticking.
Betting Picks
Chiefs (-3)
This will be a great game that should come down to the final possessions in the fourth quarter. But with a loud crowd at home and Josh Allen’s history against the Chiefs, look for Kansas City to prevail in the end, 35-31.
The Chiefs have their backs against the wall as they look ahead to a possible third straight AFC title, and Patrick Mahomes will respond. Travis Kelce will also have a huge day for the Chiefs as they improve to 3-2.
Over 56.5
In Kansas City’s four games, they have collectively gone over the total line by 41.5 points. The numbers are not as good for the Bills, but that’s because they have two shutouts.
This game is going into the 60s, if not the 70s. Hammer this over.