No sports bets are placed without first knowing the line. But a good and successful bettor should also know what the line used to be and why it has changed.
Tracking the players on the field is half the battle in becoming a profitable sports bettor. Tracking the movement of the line you are playing is the other half.
What Line Movement Means
When we talk about the line, we are talking about the point spread or moneyline. These are the odds you are playing for each bet you place. And when talking about line movement, this refers to where the line opened vs. where it is at the time you place your bet.
An initial line is an at best guess by the sportsbook. An example would be Tuesday morning lines for NFL games the following Sunday. And as news breaks, player injuries are revealed (or healed), and weather reports come in, the line will move by Sunday’s kickoff.
Knowing exactly why the line moved and by how much is critical in making the best bets.
Why Lines Move
The first thing to remember when analyzing why a line moves is that a point spread or moneyline is not a prediction by the sportsbook of what will happen in the game. The line is instead where the sportsbook believes the public will be split as close to 50-50 as possible.
The only way a sportsbook will lose money is if the betting becomes too lopsided on one side or the other. If there are an equal amount of bets on both sides of the line, the sportsbook is guaranteed to make a profit through the juice that it charges.
Gradual line movement over the course of a week is generally a sign that more people are placing bets on one side of the line, and the sportsbook is correcting the spread in the hopes of stimulating more bets on the other side of the line.
If there is a sudden movement of the line, this is generally a sign that a lot of money has been placed on one team, but from a small number of bettors. This is also line correction by the sportsbook but done quickly because the current line has been targeted by a sharp.
Lines can also move for reasons that have nothing to do with the betting trends. If an NBA star is revealed to be resting, that line will move. If a player is suspended, ruled out before the game, or hobbled from a previous injury, the line will move. And if inclement weather is in the forecast, totals lines in football will also see a change.
Just remember that all line movement, even movement based on player availability, is all done by the sportsbook to stimulate an equal amount of betting on both sides.
Using Line Movement to Your Advantage
Once you understand why a line has moved, you can then use that information to formulate a strategy and better target your bets.
One popular strategy that bettors use is fading the public – meaning that if the majority of people bet in one direction, you will bet in the other. If a line has moved because the majority of the public likes the favorite, seeing that trend will help you decide to put your money down on the underdog.
If, however, it’s a quick-moving line, indicating that sharp money has been placed on the favorite, this is an indication that experienced and successful bettors are going in that direction, and you might be wise to follow suit.
Timing Your Wagers
The betting public prefers betting on favorites, and the bookmakers know this. So they tend to slant their lines in that direction to maximize their profits. And as more of the public bets on the favorite, the line slants even further. So if you see an opening line on a favorite that you like, pounce on it early. It will eventually move, and waiting will only hurt your bet.
The opposite holds true if you like the underdog in a matchup. The public will again tend to bet more heavily on the favorite, and the line will shift in that direction, giving you greater value on the underdog as the week progresses.
If you time your bets right, and there is significant enough line movement, you can employ a strategy called betting the middle.
Let’s say the Ravens open as 5-point favorites over the Browns, and you like that bet. You put $100 down, but so do a lot of other people, and by the time the game kicks off on Sunday, the Ravens are favored by 7.5. You can bet the Browns, and if the Ravens win by six or seven points, you win both bets.